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☆ Watch out for these momentum losers that could underperform, Evercore ISI says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A collection of so-called momentum misers are already seeing their 2024 earnings estimates revised downward and the stocks have few reasons that could drive them higher, according to Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI managing director and head of equity, derivatives and quantitative strategy. Lowe's first-quarter results are due out on May 21, but 2024 earnings estimates have fallen 4.7% year to date, according to Evercore. LOW YTD mountain Lowe's stock. MicroStrategy also made the Evercore list. Still, its 2024 earnings estimates have been revised down by more than 116% since the year began.

Persons: Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, Russell, Lowe's, Morgan Stanley, Simeon Gutman, Gutman, MicroStrategy Organizations: ISI, Coterra Energy, Citigroup

☆ Dollar General's brand is showing some cracks and may be a warning sign ahead of earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In collecting this data, the firm saw a deterioration in the Dollar General brand last year. As of Monday's close, Dollar General's stock is up more than 57% from a 52-week low of $101.09 reached in mid-October. Their research found that consumers felt the cleanliness of Dollar General's stores, a top five driver of satisfaction, lagged key peers Dollar Tree and Family Dollar, and fell 2% further in February. Until November, shoppers rated Family Dollar and Dollar General's product offerings more or less on a par with each other. In addition to Dollar General's own challenges, all dollar stores are likely being hurt by weaker spending among low income consumers.

Persons: Vasos, what's, Todd Vasos, Jeff Owen, Gordon Haskett, Chuck Grom, Grom, bode, Piper Sandler, Peter Keith, Keith, Morgan Stanley, Simeon Gutman, Gutman, Michael Lasser, Lasser, Matthew Boss, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Dollar, DG, Occupational Safety, Health Administration, SNAP, UBS, JPMorgan

☆ Target's initiatives will bring the company growth, says Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTarget's initiatives will bring the company growth, says Morgan Stanley's Simeon GutmanSimeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley U.S. retail analyst, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss whether Target's initiative will bring the company to growth, how Target's stock looks to the retail analyst, and more.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Morgan Stanley U.S

☆ Retailers turn to an unlikely source to boost profits. Walmart shows how powerful this lever could be
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

There are three main routes through which retailers like Walmart benefit from advertising, Tarlowe said. The focus in retail advertising once transitioned from in-store to retailer websites with the e-commerce boom, Gutman said. Walmart: The pack leader With the deal, Walmart appears ahead of the retail pack, Gutman said. Connected TV is also just one part of a broader tide-change that's bolstering optimism on the stock, analysts told CNBC Pro. Other retail ideas Beyond Walmart, analysts said retailers need size and scale to perform well within off-site advertising.

Persons: Jefferies, Corey Tarlowe, Tarlowe, Morgan Stanley, Matt, Simeon Gutman, Gutman, it's, Roku, FactSet, Warren Buffett, Franklin Templeton, Dan Niles Organizations: Walmart, Intelligence, Retailers, Albertsons, CNBC, P Retail, Costco, Target, FactSet, TGT, Nvidia, & & , & & () Locations: Arkansas, Vizio

☆ Food inflation is causing 'cutbacks across the board', says Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFood inflation is causing 'cutbacks across the board', says Morgan Stanley's Simeon GutmanSimeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley U.S. retail analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of food inflation, the impact on consumers and retailers, and more.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Morgan Stanley U.S

☆ Costco's position in e-commerce will change, says Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCostco's position in e-commerce will change, says Morgan Stanley's Simeon GutmanSimeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley analyst, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Amazon and Walmart's performance in e-commerce, other competitors in the retail space and more.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley

☆ Analysts increasingly believe this retailer is the top holiday pick
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Analysts on Wall Street think Five Below is the retail stock investors should be buying as the holiday shopping season picks up steam. The report underpins a broader bullish trend for the retailer, analysts say, which is a more cost-sensitive consumer who is partial toward bargain hunting. Analyst Jason Haas noted the popularity of Five Below could improve further as shoppers gear up for the Christmas holiday. FIVE becomes most needs-based during the holiday season and the rollout of Five Beyond (products $6-25) better positions it in the gift-giving category." "All in, we think FIVE is well positioned to outperform in the current environment and will gain share behind several catalysts (e.g.

Persons: Jason Haas, Haas, Krisztina Katai, Katai, Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman, Gutman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: LSEG, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank

☆ How Costco's next CEO, Ron Vachris, went from driving the retailer's forklifts to earning millions in the C-suite
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Dominick Reuter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Costco president and COO Ron Vachris will take over as CEO from Craig Jelinek on January 1. The 40-year employee started as a forklift driver at Costco's predecessor, Price Club. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhen Ron Vachris steps into his new role as CEO for wholesale club Costco, he will have worn more hats for the company than probably anyone alive. "If Vachris is appointed CEO, he would be the third CEO in Costco's history." When Price Club and Costco merged in 1993 (Costco co-founder Jim Sinegal was a protégé of Price), Vachris was tasked with overseeing the company's expansion back in Arizona.

Persons: Ron Vachris, Craig Jelinek, —, Vachris, Morgan Stanley, Simeon Gutman, Jelinek, Sol Price, Jim Sinegal, — Jelinek, Doug McMillon, Brian Cornell Organizations: Costco, Price, Service, Company, Price Club, SEC, Walmart Locations: Arizona, Colorado, Price

How GLP-1 drugs work Sorting through the facts reveals some likely winners and losers. LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly shares year to date performance It is still early days for GLP-1 medications. Many have seen the rise of GLP-1 drugs as a threat to the medical device industry. Also, not all patients are able to tolerate GLP-1 drugs, which can cause side effects such as nausea. Among other medtech stocks, Plovanic sees GLP-1 drugs as an "incremental positive" for Dexcom, which makes continuous glucose monitors (CGMs), but an "incremental negative" for insulin pump makers like Insulet.

Persons: Insulet, Medtronic, Dexcom, BAX, NASH, Eli Lilly, Peter Verdult, Lilly, Eli Lilly aren't, Piper Sandler, Wegovy, Yasmeen Rahimi, Robbie Marcus, Marcus, hasn't, Baxter, David Low doesn't, William Plovanic, Craig Wong, Pan, Plovanic, Matt O'Brien, O'Brien, Rippling, Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley, Gutman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Baxter International, Baxter, GLP, Citi, Novo, Bank of America, Viking Therapeutics, Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, Amgen, Companies, Fisher, Reuters, Inspire, Systems, JPMorgan, RBC Capital, Walmart, underperformance Locations: GLP, U.S, DaVita, ResMed

☆ Analysts loved Costco's earnings report—Here's where they say the stock is headed next
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Lasser also labeled Costco stock as "the gold standard." Bank of America's Robert Ohmes reiterated a buy rating on Costco stock, with a $610 per share price target. Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman, meanwhile, restated an overweight rating on Wednesday, accompanied by a $585 per share price target or roughly 6% upside. Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane kept a buy rating on Costco stock following Tuesday's quarterly results, but boosted her price target to $603 from $589. He remains neutral on Costco stock with a $530 target price, which is 4% lower than where shares recently closed.

Persons: Costco, Michael Lasser, Lasser, Bank of America's Robert Ohmes, Ohmes, Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley, Gutman, Goldman Sachs, Kate McShane, McShane, JPMorgan's Christopher Horvers, Horvers, Citi's Paul Lejuez, Lejuez, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Costco, LSEG, 4Q, UBS, Bank of America's Locations: U.S

☆ This retailer is the big winner as shoppers trade down to cheaper products, Jefferies says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Specifically, canned vegetables, meats and cheese are trending higher in private label share, according to Numerator . In addition, food and treats for cats and dogs are seeing the strongest gains in private label dollar share, the firm found. Walmart's store brands include Sam's Choice and Great Value, the latter of which is the most popular private label brand, according to Numerator. Its private label penetration is in the high 20%, and in the first quarter its penetration grew 110 basis points year over year, he pointed out. He expects its private label penetration to continue to grow.

Persons: Jefferies, Corey Tarlowe, There's, Tarlowe, Morgan Stanley, Simeon Gutman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Walmart, Sam's Locations: WMT

☆ Morgan Stanley downgrades Dollar General, says retailer not as defensive as expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Dollar General is not performing as expected given the current backdrop, according to Morgan Stanley. "DG's business has not proven as resilient through this current cycle as we expected given its backbone of high consumables mix and its usual status as a trade down beneficiary." Dollar General shares are down more than 32% year to date. A chunk of those losses came Thursday after the discount retailer reported weaker-than-expected earnings and revenue for the first quarter. DG YTD mountain Dollar General stock has slipped more than 32% from the start of the year.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Simeon Gutman, Gutman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Dollar Locations: Friday's

☆ What Home Depot's billion-dollar pay raise may help prove about workers
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Bob Woods | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

"We are confident we can make the investments needed to remain competitive in a tight labor market while also growing our profitability." "The [home improvement] environment seems to be weakening, not accelerating, and therefore incremental wage investments at this time would open the door to more questions and surprise. "They're behaving as they should given the tight labor market, showing leadership and not just thinking about a 12-month timeframe. And in a tight labor market, it's getting increasingly difficult to keep talent [if] you pay unlivable wages and [offer] few opportunities for growth and success." It's hard to say when, and if, Home Depot will see a demonstrable return on the monumental expenditure for its frontline workers.

☆ This e-commerce stock has a whopping 300% upside, according to Morgan Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The e-commerce market grew in 2020 as consumers shied away from brick-and-mortar stores and opted for contactless deliveries during pandemic lockdowns. A period of normalization then followed, according to Morgan Stanley , with the sector notching a streak of four consecutive quarters of declining penetration. Stock picks The recovery in e-commerce growth is an opportunity for incremental sales growth and gains in market share, according to Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley said the company is a "share taker" in a key underpenetrated e-commerce category: global luxury. Nike expects the figure to rise to 40% over the longer term, according to Morgan Stanley, which implies e-commerce sales of $30 billion by 2027.

☆ Here are Morgan Stanley's favorite quality stocks to buy as bear market nears end
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

As investors start preparing for the end of the bear market, Morgan Stanley has identified a number of stocks it expects to outperform once the next bull market begins. He has an overweight rating on the stock and a $135 price target, which suggests about 33% upside from Monday's close. He has an overweight rating on Costco and a $520 price target, which implies a little more than 6% upside from Monday's close. Graseck has an overweight rating on JPM and a $173 price target, which implies 36% upside from Monday's close. His $155 price target suggests the stock could rally more than 20% from Monday's close.

☆ Home Depot and Walmart earnings are a preview of what to expect in retail: Morgan Stanley's Gutman
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHome Depot and Walmart earnings are a preview of what to expect in retail: Morgan Stanley's GutmanSimeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley managing director, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what to expect from retail earnings this week, good and bad news for Target, and more.

☆ Can't figure out this economy? Walmart, Home Depot are having trouble, too
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-26 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesIf you think the economy is confusing right now, consider how baffling it must look to Home Depot and Walmart. Home Depot said consumer spending is holding up, but that it expects a flat sales-growth year overall, with declining profits. Friday's PCE showed consumer spending rose more than expected as prices increased, jumping 1.8% for the month compared to the estimate of 1.4%. It wasn't a good week for the retail sector or consumer stocks, either. "The outlook for sustained consumer spending growth remains," wrote consumer analyst Jason English.

☆ Shop or Drop? WMT, HD, LOW & TGT
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailShop or Drop? WMT, HD, LOW & TGTSimeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley and CNBC's Melissa Repko join 'The Exchange' to discuss retail stocks ahead of earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's and Target.

☆ Morgan Stanley says these attractive stocks have the best risk-reward for 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

They include Dick's Sporting Goods, Verizon , Alibaba, Constellation Brands and Sealed Air. Dick's Sporting Goods It's been an "Olympic transformation" for the sporting goods retailer, according to analyst Simeon Gutman. Dick's Sporting Goods made pre-pandemic structural changes that leaves the company with a "faster-growing & more profitable business," Gutman added. Meanwhile, he said the retailer's customers have gotten wealthier and the sporting goods category has room for growth. Sealed Air The maker of bubble wrap and other packaging products is firing on all cylinders, according to analyst Angel Castillo and his team.

☆ Morgan Stanley downgrades Williams-Sonoma, says stock could fall another 18% as demand for home furnishings weakens
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Expect more downside ahead for Williams-Sonoma 's stock as demand for home furnishings weakens in a difficult macro environment, according to Morgan Stanley. Analyst Simeon Gutman downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight, saying in a note to clients Monday. The analyst also slashed his price target on the stock to $100 from $150. Going forward, Gutman views a slew of macro-related issues for Williams-Sonoma, expecting home furnishings to decline by 6% to 7%, discretionary spending to fall and deflation to return in 2023. "Though WSM's higher-income customer provides some insulation, in aggregate we think these headwinds mean the category likely declines and comps should turn more sharply negative in '23," he said.

The companies said Kroger agreed to buy Albertsons for $34.10 a share in a deal valued at $24.6 billion. The tie-up comes during a challenging time in the grocery industry. The grocery industry is highly fragmented. Albertsons’ share was about 5%. Consolidation in the grocery industry has not historically paid off in the form of higher profits, he said.

☆ Walmart+ could be worth $45 billion as estimated subscriber base grows, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Walmart 's subscription business could be worth around $45 billion dollars alone as estimates show a jump in interest, according to Morgan Stanley. Analyst Simeon Gutman said the strength of Walmart+ may not be fully reflected in the stock's current trading value. The firm has a price target of $150 on the big-box retailer, which represents about 16% upside from Monday's close. Gutman said Walmart+ could be worth $45 billion on a stand-alone basis, which would add about $17 to the company's share price if the service wasn't priced in on its current value. Walmart+ is believed to have about 18.6 million subscribers after adding 1.8 million from the last estimate published in early September, according to Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey.

☆ Expect retail earnings from companies such as Walmart, Target to miss the mark, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2022-08-10 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A slew of retail companies including Walmart, Home Depot and Lowe's post quarterly results next week, and Morgan Stanley is bracing for some rough reports. Given this backdrop, Greenberger expects weaker-than-expected earnings from companies across the board. "Yet as Q2 Mega Cap earnings approach, about half the companies in our coverage have already lowered their '22 outlooks. Morgan Stanley is bracing for potential downward guidance revisions from many companies including Walmart, Lowe's and Target. Target and Lowe's are set to report earnings Wednesday.

☆ Retailers Stuck With Too Much Inventory Face Risky Decisions
▼ + stars: | 2022-06-03 | by ( Emma Cosgrove | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In the past two weeks, retailers have shown that the anticipated, but hard to time, cooling in consumer demand for goods has arrived. And many retailers reported holding more inventory than they'd like — and the goods they have might not be the ones they need now. Several retailers mentioned late deliveries of spring merchandise, which compounded their inventory glut when mixed with the cooling demand. Quite literally, it means to pack inventory away to sell when its season comes back around. On top of the risk that the product may not be attractive in the future, holding inventory means paying for storage.

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